The Florida Housing Market in 2026: What Sellers Should Actually Do
The Florida housing market in 2026 is holding up better than the doom headlines suggest — but it is not the market you sold into three years ago. Single-family prices are still climbing, up about 5% year over year, and homes are moving in roughly six weeks. At the same time, buyers finally have room to negotiate, and one big corner of the market — condos — has genuinely softened. For sellers, that split means pricing right and guarding your net proceeds matter more than they have in years.
I’ve watched a lot of Florida sellers walk into 2026 still pricing off a 2022 memory. That’s the single most expensive mistake I see right now. The market that let you list high, sit back, and collect three offers over the weekend is gone in most of the state. What replaced it isn’t a crash. It’s a slower, pickier, more negotiation-heavy market where the seller who prepares wins and the seller who wings it leaves money on the table.
Redfin and Florida Realtors will give you the raw Florida housing market numbers. What they won’t tell you is what to do with them. That’s the part I care about, so let’s get into it.
What’s the Florida housing market doing right now?
Here’s the headline most people get wrong: single-family prices are still rising. According to Florida Realtors’ June 2026 report, the statewide single-family median sale price climbed 4.9% year over year to $432,000, and closed sales rose for the tenth straight month. This is not a market in free fall. It’s a market that’s normalized.
What has changed is the balance of power. Single-family inventory now sits at a 4.5-month supply statewide — roughly the line between a seller’s and a buyer’s market — and the typical home takes around 43 days to go under contract, up sharply from the near-instant sales of the pandemic boom. Add mortgage rates that climbed to 6.55% in mid-July (their highest since August 2025, per Freddie Mac) and Florida’s brutal insurance costs, and you get a buyer pool that’s smaller, slower, and a lot more willing to walk.
Here’s my read: this is a normal single-family market wearing scary clothes. Buyers are still out there, and prices are still up. They’re just no longer desperate, and they’ve got choices. If you’re a seller, you have to earn the sale now — but the equity is still there to protect.
Florida metro snapshot: prices and market pace
The Florida housing market is not one market. Miami behaves nothing like Jacksonville, and lumping them together is how sellers get bad advice. Here’s a metro-by-metro look at the Florida housing market in mid-2026. Treat every number here as a directional snapshot — single-family where noted, otherwise a rolling metro median — and confirm against the latest Florida Realtors and Redfin data before you price.
| Metro | Median sale price | YoY price change | Market read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (Miami-Dade) | ~$695,000 (single-family) | +3.7% | Single-family firm; condos glutted (~12-month supply, prices down) |
| Tampa–St. Pete | ~$443,000 | −1.4% | Softening; ~41 days on market, inventory rising |
| Orlando | ~$410,000 | −2.0% | Roughly flat to down; inventory up sharply year over year |
| Jacksonville | ~$305,000 | +0.9% | Essentially flat; ~60 days on market |
| Florida (statewide, single-family) | $432,000 | +4.9% | Balanced; 4.5-month supply, ~43 days on market |
A couple of things jump out at me. Miami single-family is still the priciest and healthiest slice of the state, up nearly 4% on the year, even as its condo market drags the metro’s overall supply sky-high. Tampa and Orlando — two of the hottest markets in the country three years ago — have actually given back a point or two on price. That’s not a reason to panic if you own there. It’s a reason to price to today, not to 2022.
If you’re weighing a specific metro, our local pages break down what a sale looks like on the ground in Tampa and Miami, including what sellers there typically net after commission.
Why the condo market is the real story
If you own a single-family home in Florida, your situation is fundamentally fine — prices are up and supply is balanced. The condo market is a different animal, and I’d be doing you a disservice to gloss over it.
The numbers tell the split plainly. While single-family supply sits at a healthy 4.5 months, condo and townhouse inventory has ballooned to an 8.1-month supply statewide, and the condo median rose just 1.7% year over year to $305,000 — barely keeping pace. In South Florida it’s worse: Miami-Dade’s condo median actually fell about 3% year over year, with well over a year of supply on the market.
The cause is no mystery. After the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida passed strict building-safety laws (SB 4-D). Older condo associations now have to complete milestone structural inspections — required at 30 years, or 25 years near the coast — and fund a Structural Integrity Reserve Study, with reserves that had to be fully funded by the end of 2025 — a 2025 law, HB 913, pushed that deadline back a year from 2024 and eased a few of the reserve rules, but the core requirement stands. A lot of associations are covering that with eye-watering special assessments, commonly $30,000 to $200,000 or more per unit. Stack soaring insurance premiums on top, and monthly carrying costs on aging coastal condos have jumped by hundreds of dollars. Buyers know this. Lenders know it too, and some won’t finance units in associations that fail the new reserve rules.
My honest take: if you’re sitting on a pre-2000 condo near the coast, time is not your friend. Price it realistically, get your association’s inspection and reserve paperwork in order before you list, and don’t assume last year’s comp down the hall still holds. Newer buildings and single-family homes aren’t caught in this. It’s a specific problem, not a statewide one.
What should a Florida seller do in this market?
Three moves matter more than anything else in today’s Florida housing market, and none of them are complicated.
First, price it right on day one. In a balanced, four-to-five-month-supply market, the overpriced listing doesn’t “test the market.” It anchors buyers against you, goes stale, and then sells for less than it would have if you’d priced it correctly from the start. The first two weeks are your best shot. Waste them chasing a fantasy number and you’ll be cutting price by fall.
Second, prep the house so it stands out. When buyers have several comparable homes to tour, the one that shows best and prices fairest wins. That means paint, decluttering, minor repairs, and real listing photos. I’ve seen a $4,000 prep budget return $15,000 at closing more times than I can count.
Third, be ready to negotiate on more than price. Buyers in 2026 are asking for rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and repair concessions again. A seller who understands the tradeoff between a $10,000 price cut and a $10,000 buydown (the buydown often closes the deal faster and stings less on your net) has a real edge. This is exactly the kind of thing a sharp listing agent earns their fee on. If you’re interviewing agents, run them through our list of essential questions to ask a realtor before you sign anything.
Florida still pulls in investors too, and the math on a rental can pencil out nicely when you buy right in a softer submarket. If that’s your angle, we broke it down in our guide to buying property in Florida to rent out.
The commission math that matters more in a slower market
When prices were jumping 20% a year, a fat commission was easy to ignore. The market handed you so much appreciation that overpaying an agent barely registered. Modest, single-digit price growth changes that calculation. When your home is gaining a few percent instead of twenty, every dollar of commission comes straight out of the equity you’re trying to keep.
Here’s the part most articles skip. The traditional listing-side commission in Florida averages about 2.75%, and plenty of sellers still get quoted a flat 3%. Houwzer’s listing fee is 1%, with full-service agents and in-house Newfound Title. On a home at the Florida median, that gap is real money.
| Sale price | Traditional ~2.75% listing side | Houwzer 1% listing fee | You keep |
|---|---|---|---|
| $432,000 (FL single-family median) | $11,880 | $4,320 | $7,560 |
| $695,000 (Miami single-family median) | $19,113 | $6,950 | $12,163 |
That $7,560 to $12,000-plus isn’t a rounding error. It’s a chunk of your down payment on the next place, or the buydown you use to get this house sold faster. Across our Florida sellers, the average savings lands in the $12,000 to $15,000 range because so many Florida sales happen at higher price points. You still offer a buyer’s agent commission if you choose to. The savings come from the listing side, where the traditional rate has always been the softest, most negotiable number in the whole transaction.
To be clear, I’m not telling you to hunt for the cheapest possible agent. A bad discount agent costs you far more than they save. The point is that you shouldn’t have to choose between a great full-service agent and keeping your equity. You can see how the 1% model works in your state on our 1% listing fee in Florida page.
Florida housing market predictions for the rest of 2026
I don’t do crystal-ball nonsense, so here’s what I actually expect rather than what makes a scary headline. Single-family prices across the Florida housing market should keep their modest, low-single-digit climb through the back half of 2026, with the strongest markets holding and the weakest condo submarkets slipping further. Inventory keeps its slow rise, which keeps handing buyers negotiating room without triggering a price collapse.
Mortgage rates are the wild card. They’ve drifted back up to the mid-6% range and are near a one-year high, so I wouldn’t build my listing price around a rate cut. If rates finally ease back toward 6%, expect a bump in demand that firms prices up — but that’s a hope, not a plan for this year.
The Florida housing market 2026 story, in one line: single-family is resilient and still appreciating, condos are the soft spot, and the whole market rewards preparation and punishes wishful pricing. Sellers who accept that and act on it will do fine. The ones waiting for 2022 to come back will keep chasing the market down.
If you’re planning to sell in the next six months, the smartest thing you can do today is get a realistic pricing opinion and understand your true net after commission. That number, not the Zillow estimate, is what actually matters.
FAQ
Is the Florida housing market a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?
It depends on property type. Single-family homes sit in balanced territory — a 4.5-month supply with prices still up about 5% year over year — so well-priced, well-prepared homes still sell. Condos have tilted firmly toward buyers, with an 8.1-month statewide supply and even more in South Florida. Either way, buyers have more negotiating power than they did two years ago.
Are home prices dropping in Florida?
Not for single-family homes — the statewide single-family median rose 4.9% year over year to $432,000 in June 2026. The softness is in condos, where the statewide median crept up just 1.7% and South Florida condo prices actually fell, driven by insurance costs and new reserve-funding laws. Tampa and Orlando single-family prices have slipped a point or two, while Miami and Jacksonville held or gained.
What is the median home price in Florida right now?
The statewide single-family median sale price was $432,000 in June 2026, up 4.9% year over year, per Florida Realtors. It varies widely by metro — Miami single-family runs near $695,000 while Jacksonville sits around $305,000. The statewide condo and townhouse median was $305,000. Always confirm the current median for your specific city and property type before pricing.
How much are realtor commissions in Florida?
The traditional listing-side commission in Florida averages about 2.75%, with many sellers quoted a flat 3%, plus a buyer’s agent commission on top if you offer one. Total commissions run around 5.5%. Houwzer charges a 1% listing fee with full-service agents, which saves a Florida seller roughly $7,500 at the state single-family median and $12,000 to $15,000 on average across higher-priced sales.
Should I sell my Florida home now or wait for 2027?
If you need or want to sell, waiting is a gamble. Single-family prices are expected to keep rising only modestly and inventory keeps climbing, so holding out doesn’t obviously pay off, and it costs you carrying expenses and today’s high insurance. My advice: price to today’s market, prep the home well, and protect your net with a low listing fee rather than betting on a rebound. Condo owners especially shouldn’t wait, given rising supply.
Why is the Florida condo market struggling?
Post-Surfside safety laws (SB 4-D) now require milestone structural inspections and fully funded reserves, and many older associations are covering that with large special assessments — often $30,000 to $200,000 or more per unit. Combined with high insurance premiums, monthly costs on aging coastal condos have jumped, financing has gotten harder, and inventory has piled up to an 8.1-month statewide supply. Newer buildings and single-family homes aren’t affected the same way.
